SPE Projects, Facilities & Construction
Volume 5, Number 3, September 2010, pp. 155-165

Summary

In the screening and concept selection stages of gas storage projects, many estimates are required to value competing projects and development concepts. These estimates are important because they influence which projects are selected and which concept proceeds into detailed engineering. In most cases, there is uncertainty in all of the estimates. As a result, operators are faced with the complex problem of determining the optimal design. A systematic uncertainty analysis can help operators solve this problem and make better decisions. Ideally, the uncertainty analysis is comprehensive and includes all uncertain variables, and simultaneously accounts for reservoir behavior, facility options, and economic objectives.

This paper proposes and demonstrates a workflow and integrated optimization model for uncertainty analysis in gas storage. The optimization model is fast-solving and eliminates most constraints on the scope of the uncertainty analysis. Using this or similar workflows and models should facilitate analysis and communication of results within the project team and with other stakeholders.

© 2010. Society of Petroleum Engineers

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History

• Original manuscript received: 25 September 2009
• Meeting paper published: 5 October 2009
• Manuscript approved: 21 November 2009
• Published online: 13 September 2010
• Version of record: 13 September 2010