SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering
Production-data analysis has been applied extensively to predicting future
production performance and field recovery. These applications operate mostly on
a single-well basis. This paper presents a new approach to production-data
analysis using artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques in which production
history is used to build a fieldwide performance-prediction model. In this
work, AI and data-driven modeling are used to predict future production of both
synthetic- (for validation purposes) and real-field cases.
In the approach presented in this article, production history is paired with
field geological information to build data sets containing the spatio-temporal
dependencies among different wells. These dependencies are addressed by
compiling information from closest offset wells (COWs) that includes their
geological and reservoir characteristics (spatial data) as well as their
production history (temporal data).
Once the data set is assembled, a series of neural networks are trained
using a back-propagation algorithm. These networks are then fused together to
form the intelligent time-successive production-modeling (ITSPM) system. This
technique uses only the widely available measured data such as well logs and
production history of existing wells to predict future performance of the
existing wells and production performance of the new (infill) wells. To
demonstrate the applicability of this method, a synthetic oil reservoir is
modeled using a commercial simulator. Production and well-log data are
extracted into an all-inclusive data set. Several neural networks are trained
and validated to predict different stages of the production. The ITSPM method
is used to estimate the production profile for nine new wells in the reservoir.
Furthermore, ITSPM is also applied to two giant oil fields in the Middle East.
The first one has more than 200 wells and 40 years of production history.
ITSPM?s production predictions of the four newest wells in this reservoir are
compared with their actual production. The second real field has hundreds of
wells producing from multiple layers. The field has undergone waterflooding for
almost its whole life. This case also shows the capabilities of this technique
in more-complex scenarios and especially multiphase systems.
© 2011. Society of Petroleum Engineers
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- Original manuscript received:
15 November 2010
- Meeting paper published:
27 May 2010
- Revised manuscript received:
17 May 2011
- Manuscript approved:
14 August 2011
- Published online:
22 December 2011
- Version of record:
28 December 2011