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Petroleum Economics: A New Era

4 – 6 March 2013

Dubai, UAE | Amwaj Rotana Hotel

Technical Agenda

MONDAY, 4 March, 0900–1030

Session 1: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Outlook

Analysing the movement and trends of the global and regional economy will help you understand how the economy operates and make the best decisions in a complex environment. Knowing the key factors influencing current industry economics conditions is important to forecast supply/demand, and to understand pricing drivers, cost trends, inflation and tax. “What gets measured gets managed”, so do you have the proper key performance indicators? Are the regional trends mimicking the global trends? If not, why? And what are the current challenges for oil and gas companies in the Middle East?

In addition, this session will highlight some subjects on benchmarking and financing of E&P projects from the perspective of different stakeholders including IOC’s, NOC’s, service companies, and financial institutions.

1330–1500

Session 2: Risk and Uncertainty

In this session, we will focus on the appropriate application of the economic toolkit to the issue of addressing risk and uncertainty. The session will include short presentations on key aspects of the topic. There is a wide range of increasingly sophisticated risk modelling approaches available to practitioners, from simple deterministic and scenario methods through decision based to fully stochastic and options based approaches. However, not all analytical situations require the same sophistication of approach and we will discuss the applicability and suitability of the various methods available in the context of different modelling situations and where practicable the commercial tools and associated methodologies that are used in the industry to assess and quantify risk.

TUESDAY, 5 MARCH, 0900–1030

Session 3: Economic Modelling for Decision Making

With the ever increasing business complexity in the oil and gas industry, advanced economic modelling techniques are applied to analyse some of the largest capital investment projects by assessing risks and uncertainties, which enable us to improve decision making.

In this dynamic environment, we seek to provide significant value to our clients and stakeholders, be it host governments or shareholders, by improving their responsiveness, agility and reliability using decision support systems and tools. This session will address a wide range of issues related to both deterministic and probabilistic methods as applied to investment decision making, underlining cost, project phasing, and uncertainty variables.

A blend of theoretical concepts and their practical utility, similar to portfolio management and asset optimisation will be addressed. This is a sophisticated process and sub-topics are addressed, namely the importance of the economic limit tests in reserves determination, evaluation of unconventional resources, and the use of scenario analysis for complex projects.

WEDNESDAY, 6 MARCH, 0800–0930

Session 4: IOR/EOR Economics

Many countries and oil companies have set high production targets to meet world’s steadily increasing demand for oil. However, with mega field discoveries becoming rare and expensive alternative energy resources, it becomes critical to extend the life of the current reservoirs through IOR/EOR methods.  Besides, the technical challenges to implement such projects, economic challenges will always constitute to be a major hurdle to achieve this demand!

With this in mind, this session will not only discuss the economic challenges of IOR/EOR projects, but also present case studies from the Middle East on how to overcome these challenges.

1330–1500

Session 5: Petroleum Contracts

This session will discuss international petroleum contracts covering current trends and developments globally, with a particular focus on the Middle East and Asia Pacific regions. Topics related to the two main contract types royalty/tax and contractual systems, with their various forms, will be covered. In addition, some of the major service contracts (e.g. Iraq) will be compared with the more traditional contracts. Terms that are common to most contract types such as, work programme, measurement, and valuation of hydrocarbons, determination of OPEX, CAPEX, taxes in lieu, cost uplift, ring fencing, risk identification and allocation, general obligations of the parties, contractual liabilities and indemnities, and jurisdictional issues will be discussed. Comparative analysis between various forms of contracts such as royalty/tax, PSCs, and service contracts will be presented and illustrated through case studies. This analysis will try to show the dynamics of these contracts as far as “government take” versus “contractor take”; as it is essential to see these contracts from both sides of the equation. This session will explore worldwide petroleum contract arrangements, developments, trends, lessons learned and will enable participants to compare and benchmark various contract forms in different regions/countries; from both the IOC and NOC perspective.