About this workshop

Abstract

In October 2009, an SPE forum series meeting was held in Cadiz, Spain, entitled “Getting to Robust Production Forecasts.” This was a very lively meeting with excellent discussions and contributions. The discussions covered all aspects of production forecasting; however, no clear consensus emerged on what is a ‘good’ production forecast, and many people felt that there was a need for more best practice guidelines.

Following this forum, a small group of the attendees decided to do something about this. A steering committee was set up under the auspices of the SPE. It was decided that a ‘Reprint Book’ of papers on production forecasting, followed by a series of SPE workshops taking place around the world over the next 5 years, would help encourage discussion of the issues. The intention is to use these SPE workshops to help improve understanding of production forecasting and to eventually develop production forecasting guidelines which are broadly accepted across the industry.

The resulting document will be organized into sections, including the following topics:

• Glossary of production forecasting
• What is a good production forecast?
• How do we learn from bad forecasts?
• Impact of production engineering and operational field management
• Uncertainties on production forecasting
• Reservoir management and field reserves
• Production forecasts for financial decision making
• Forecasts for national and international bodies

Learnings from each workshop will be collected and edited into a scribe report posted online and accessible by all of the series participants. Each posted report will build on those that came before it and participants are encouraged to comment on and discuss further the topics of these postings as part of an SPE online community.

Whilst the workshop is global in scope, it is important that it has a significant local content. To this end, themes of particular relevance today in the North American region are woven in throughout the programme. These include issues surrounding unconventional resources and the particular requirements of regulators and security commissions. Another focus area is the need for, acquisition of, QC and use of different data types. The workshop will be even more valuable if participants bring along their thoughts, ideas, and suggestions about specific local issues, as well as general and global matters.

Who Should Attend

The workshop is meant for experienced individuals who will share their own case histories and experience, and will actively contribute to the discussion. However, all other professionals who are looking for clearer guidelines on production forecasting are encouraged to attend the workshops to communicate their training needs and gaps. This is a topic with a broad scope so we would expect participants to include reservoir, petroleum and production engineers, and managers from all areas of the business who are involved in the production forecasting process.

The following business areas will be represented:

• Oil companies
• Service companies
• Governments and regulatory authorities
• Financial institutions

Session Topics

• Session 1: Production Forecasting in Unconventional Resources—Pathway to a Paradigm Shift?
• Session 2: Current and New Forecasting Methods—Do We Need New Forecasting Methods
• Session 3: Data to Support Forecasting
• Session 4: Short-Term and Long-Term Production Forecasting
• Session 5: Production Forecasting and Reserves—Finding the Link Between
• Session 6: Fit-For-Purpose Forecasting
• Session 7: What is Needed to Improve Forecast Certainty
• Session 8: Panel Session: Objective and Subjective Forecasting

   

Workshop Details

Workshop Format

Workshops maximize the exchange of ideas among attendees and presenters through brief technical presentations followed by extended Q&A periods. Focused topics attract an informed audience eager to discuss issues critical to advancing both technology and best practices.

Many of the presentations are in the form of case studies, highlighting engineering achievements and lessons learned. In order to stimulate frank discussion, no proceedings are published and members of the press are not invited to attend.

Documentation

Following the workshop, a URL containing released copies of the workshop presentations will be available to attendees.

Commercialism

In remaining consistent with workshop objectives and SPE guidelines, commercialism in presentations will not be permitted. Company logos should be used only to indicate the affiliation of the presenter(s).

Continuing Education Units (CEUs)

Attendees will receive 1.6 CEUs.

One CEU equals 10 contact hours of participation. CEUs will be awarded through SPE Professional Development for participation and completion of SPE workshop. A permanent record of a participant’s involvement and awarding of CEUs will be maintained by SPE.