Chairs: Anh Duong; Erdal Ozkan; Adwait Chawathe
Our conventional characterization and modeling approaches cannot unequivocally explain and predict production from most unconventional resource plays. Thus, the improvement of production forecast in unconventional reservoirs requires critical evaluation of the basis of the currently used techniques to delineate their shortcomings and rigorous assessment of the distinguishing features of unconventional reservoirs to ensure that they are accounted for.
Chairs: Erdal Ozkan; Dilhan Ilk; Dave Anderson
New production forecasting techniques and improvements to existing ones have been proposed to overcome the shortcomings of the conventional production forecasting. Further development in this area requires critical evaluation of the state of the art and the delineation of the lessons learned.
Chairs: Sheila Reader; Mike Morgan; John Palmer
As our industry has moved further into the world of unconventional plays, robust data collection has become increasingly important. This session is intended to be a review of data collection strategies, novel rock and fluid testing procedures, quality checks, uses, and best practices that would lead to robust production forecasts at each stage of exploration, appraisal, and development.
Chairs: Phil Chan; Boyd Russell; Robert Hawkes
Hear a broad spectrum of topics related to forecasting production from unconventional wells. A new equation will match the b value for all flow regimes, and a workflow will be presented for forecasting wells with little production. The concept of mortality tables will be examined in the context of unconventional production, and you will learn whether declines are infinite acting or boundary dominated.
Chairs: Claudio Virues; Jim Gouveia; Dilhan Ilk
Estimating reserves in unconventional resources is problematic due to the fact that there is no clear consensus on what drives production in unconventional plays; therefore, various improved semi-/analytical solutions, sophisticated numerical well, and reservoir models have subsequently been developed and employed to match production data and forecast future production. The purpose of this session is to find the link between production forecasting methodologies and reserves booking best practices by addressing the issues that might be obstacles at this time.
Chairs: Kamal Morad; Jim Gouveia; Oscar Chona; Michael Morgan
This session is dedicated to understanding how a forecast is adopted to meet the business needs of a company, including exploration, reserves estimation, capital program, and facilities and infrastructure design. Further topics for discussion will include finding an appropriate analogue for forecasting, and making business decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Chairs: Jeff Callard; Claudio Virues; Anh Duong
Quantifying and improving certainty in production forecast will require new guidelines to categorize the level of sophistication utilized in the production forecast as well as continually upgrading the methods to characterize and predict performance. This session is dedicated to exploring how and what is needed to improve forecast certainty.
Chairs: Dave Anderson; Hafsteinn Agustsson; Kamal Morad
Reserves evaluators, regulatory officials, and E&P professionals often have different business objectives in mind when forecasting production. Discussions in this session will center around subjective versus objective forecasting and moving towards a consensus on best practices.