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Production Forecasting

16 – 18 October 2013

Banff, Alberta, Canada | The Rimrock Resort Hotel

Technical Agenda

Thursday, 17 October, 0800-0930

Production Forecasting in Unconventional Resources—Pathway to a Paradigm Shift?

Chairs: Anh Duong; Erdal Ozkan; Adwait Chawathe

Our conventional characterization and modeling approaches cannot unequivocally explain and predict production from most unconventional resource plays. Thus, the improvement of production forecast in unconventional reservoirs requires critical evaluation of the basis of the currently used techniques to delineate their shortcomings and rigorous assessment of the distinguishing features of unconventional reservoirs to ensure that they are accounted for.

Speakers:

  • Craig Cipolla, Hess
  • Basak Kurtoglu, Marathon
  • Shahab Mohaghegh, WVU

1000-1130

New Forecasting Methods—Where Do We Stand?

Chairs: Erdal Ozkan; Dilhan Ilk; Dave Anderson

New production forecasting techniques and improvements to existing ones have been proposed to overcome the shortcomings of the conventional production forecasting. Further development in this area requires critical evaluation of the state of the art and the delineation of the lessons learned. 

Speakers:

  • Richard Chan, Suncor
  • Chih Chen, KAPPA
  • Luis Ayala, Penn State

1300-1430

Data to Support Forecasting

Chairs: Sheila Reader; Mike Morgan; John Palmer

As our industry has moved further into the world of unconventional plays, robust data collection has become increasingly important. This session is intended to be a review of data collection strategies, novel rock and fluid testing procedures, quality checks, uses, and best practices that would lead to robust production forecasts at each stage of exploration, appraisal, and development.

Speakers:

  • Randy Lafollete, Baker Hughes
  • Bob Bachman, Taurus RS
  • Randy Nesvold, ConocoPhillips

1500-1630

Short-Term and Long-Term Production Forecasting

Chairs: Phil Chan; Boyd Russell; Robert Hawkes

Hear a broad spectrum of topics related to forecasting production from unconventional wells. A new equation will match the b value for all flow regimes, and a workflow will be presented for forecasting wells with little production. The concept of mortality tables will be examined in the context of unconventional production, and you will learn whether declines are infinite acting or boundary dominated.

Speakers:

  • Randy Freeborn, Energy Navigator
  • David Fulford, Apache
  • David Anderson, IHS

Friday, 18 October, 0800-0930

Production Forecasting and Reserves

Chairs: Claudio Virues; Jim Gouveia; Dilhan Ilk

Estimating reserves in unconventional resources is problematic due to the fact that there is no clear consensus on what drives production in unconventional plays; therefore, various improved semi-/analytical solutions, sophisticated numerical well, and reservoir models have subsequently been developed and employed to match production data and forecast future production. The purpose of this session is to find the link between production forecasting methodologies and reserves booking best practices by addressing the issues that might be obstacles at this time.

Speakers:

  • David Fulford, Apache
  • Randy Freeborn, Energy Navigator
  • Tom Blasingame, Texas A&M

1000-1130

Fit-For-Purpose Forecasting

Chairs: Kamal Morad; Jim Gouveia; Oscar Chona; Michael Morgan

This session is dedicated to understanding how a forecast is adopted to meet the business needs of a company, including exploration, reserves estimation, capital program, and facilities and infrastructure design. Further topics for discussion will include finding an appropriate analogue for forecasting, and making business decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Speakers:

  • Lisa Fancy, ITG
  • Svein Netland, Statoil before Nora Steward
  • Nora Steward, Sproule

1300-1430

What is Needed to Improve Forecast Certainty

Chairs: Jeff Callard; Claudio Virues; Anh Duong

Quantifying and improving certainty in production forecast will require new guidelines to categorize the level of sophistication utilized in the production forecast as well as continually upgrading the methods to characterize and predict performance. This session is dedicated to exploring how and what is needed to improve forecast certainty.

Speakers:

  • Archie Taylor, Continental Resources
  • Veronica Gonzales, Schlumberger
  • Efren Munoz, ConocoPhillips
  • Gurbat Agaev, Statoil

1500-1630

Panel Session: Objective and Subjective Forecasting

Chairs: Dave Anderson; Hafsteinn Agustsson; Kamal Morad

Reserves evaluators, regulatory officials, and E&P professionals often have different business objectives in mind when forecasting production. Discussions in this session will center around subjective versus objective forecasting and moving towards a consensus on best practices.

Speakers:

  • Boyd Russell, Energy Navigator
  • Mike Morgan, GLJ Petroleum Consultants
  • Randy Nesvold, ConocoPhillips
  • Matias Badessich, YPF