Program Chairperson: Daniel Miranda, Petrobras
Session Chairpersons: Marcia Rosa, OGX; Claudio de Lima, Statoil
Description: Generating production and injection forecasts for hydrocarbons fields is a work process where three elements are present:
Production and injection potential are mainly related to reservoir and dynamic understanding while production and injection efficiency are related to historical plant performance. Both elements, potential and efficiency, should be considered in the process with an uncertainty range. Consistency with previous processes must be checked.
The production forecasts should have expected, P10 and P90 values based on the uncertainty ranges for potential and efficiency. For it, a multidisciplinary uncertainty analysis should be performed according to the complexity of the case and the available data and information, regardless the methodology used for generating the profiles. The purpose of uncertainty analysis is to allow better decisions when using forecasts to avoid downsides and grasp the upsides.
Since input from different disciplines is required for generating the forecasts, it is recommended that all assumptions used in the forecasting process are clearly communicated (provided/informed), supported and approved by the leaders as early as possible. This will help avoid last minute changes and guarantee sufficient time for the final forecast and its approval.
Session Chairpersons: Sezai Ucan, YPF; Alberto Sampaio de Almeida, HRT
Problem oriented data gathering and interpretation will lead to problem-oriented models construction, data integration and validation, and forecasting.
Session Chairpersons: Toni Uwaga, Centrica; Kamel Bennaceur, Schlumberger
With several forecasting methods available to the Industry the challenge is usually deciding which method to use. It is important to look at the challenge from a global perspective but with a local and field specific mind set.
Session Chairpersons: Stephan Weber, Shell; Djuro Novakovic, Chevron
In order to combine and aggregate forecasts at the corporate/country/asset level, they must be based on common definitions. In previous workshops it has come to light that different companies have different definitions for probabilistic forecasts and this has slowed progress in defining an aggregation process. The following will be addressed:
Participants are requested to come with their current internal definition for the above, view on how individual components are derived, and what kind of problems they may have encountered in aggregating them into forecasts at different level of aggregation (ideally, with examples as available). Presentation of alternative definitions will be followed by joint effort in workgroups to assess pros and cons and reach a group consensus, followed by presentation of findings and recommendations.
The goal is to agree on a set of definitions that will allow for an aggregation process for probabilistic forecasts that is both pragmatic and has technical rigor as well as being compatible with SPE-PRMS (Petroleum Resource Management System).
Session Chairpersons: Omar Ceroi, Petrobras; Dave Reid, Shell
Description: Given the business needs in terms of production delivery and expected risk, the most important aspects to be solved can be summarized by answering the following questions:
Session Chairpersons: Denis Schiozer, UNICAMP; Regis Romeu, Petrobras
Description: This session is dedicated to exploring how we can improve forecasts. We should be attentive to benefits of retrospective analysis (from comparing forecasts with actual results) and of special training programs. Discussions during previous sessions can be revisited and the contributions will be oriented to develop SPE forecast guidelines.
Wrap-Up and Recommendations