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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

10 – 11 February 2014

Moscow, Russia | Aerostar Hotel

About this Workshop

An important part of the field exploration, appraisal, and development decision process is characterization and quantification of subsurface uncertainties, particularly when in the initial phases when information is limited and investment maximal. For marginal and challenging fields, accurate appraisal and assessment of project downside and upside becomes even more crucial as development options carry a substantial probability of negative net-present-value. In fact, strategic upstream investment decisions are always based on an in-depth analysis of both opportunities and risks.

Effective management of uncertainties and lifecycle risks is critical to the success of oil and gas projects and is, in fact, the central challenge of the E&P business. The field development and management process covers a broad range of decisions (technical as well as commercial), involving all E&P disciplines (sub-surface, wells, surface engineering and operations) and functional domains, over a time period that can span 25-35 years in which the asset will go through several development phases (primary, secondary and tertiary recovery). The “objective or target function” for the asset in terms of production, recovery or business value may change over its lifecycle.

There are accepted E&P practices for describing, evaluating, and handling risks and uncertainties in the course of a project/field development (probabilistic, deterministic, stochastic, scenario based or a combination of these). A distinction is made between the nature and treatment of risks, as potential future events that can influence project objectives, both strategic and tactical, and uncertainties which can have different sources, being model or data dependent.

This workshop will explore and discuss methodologies, processes, and best practices in decision-making under uncertainty with the intent to share experiences across different disciplines and across different stage of a field development.

Topics

  • Exploration and appraisal risk assessment, quantification, and management
  • Development risks assessment: history match and production forecast
  • Decision process analysis: added information from uncertainties
  • Value-of-information