Probabilistic Reserve and Production Forecasting in Shale and Tight Clastics


This 2-day course covers the assessment methods required for the technical and economic evaluation of unconventional resources. The premise for this course is that sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical, and economic parameters is essential for maximizing profitability.

Learn the skills required to assess your emerging unconventional resource plays:

  • Forecasting production in tight sand and shale
  • How-to of booking proven undeveloped reserves using the SPEE Monograph 3 ECR technique
  • Principles of resource and rate aggregation mandatory to assessing the economics of our drilling programs
  • Stage approach to resource development with an exercise to demonstrate how to develop the optimal land acquisition strategy
    • Value of information
  • How-to of making effective business decisions based on limited well counts


  • Fundamental concepts
    • Probability, distributions, and dependency
    • Estimating under uncertainty
    • Decision trees and expected value
    • PRMS and aggregation considerations
  • Unconventional resource assessment
    • Shale and tight clastics—production and reserves evaluation

Why Attend?

The industry has moved to probabilistic assessments for shale and tight clastics to deal with the inherent uncertainties. This course enables you to utilize probabilistic methods by providing you with knowledge of statistical methods and training in estimating with uncertainty.

Who Should Attend

The course is designed for sub-surface staff including engineers, geoscientists, and managers charged with creating economic value for their companies in unconventional resource plays.


1.6 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) are awarded for this 2-day course.


James (Jim) Gouveia, PE has a diverse technical, business, and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in 2002 after 21 years with Amoco and BP Energy. Gouveia worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in exploration, production and reservoir engineering, strategic and business process planning, portfolio, and risk management. Prior to BP's acquisition of Amoco in 1999, he was director of risk management for North America. In this role he was accountable for assurance of consistent project evaluation of all major capital projects. He was the recipient of the President’s Award for his work in developing Amoco Canada’s first major fractured tight gas play and the Chairman's Award for his work in implementing project, risk, and portfolio management processes within Amoco Canada.  Following the merger, he functioned as the risk and assurance coordinator for Canada. In his last roles with BP, Gouveia led and managed their strategic initiative into unconventional gas resources in Western Canada. He was a member of a world-wide task force focused on growth initiatives in mature basins and developing a portfolio management process for BP's North American unconventional gas assets. 

Gouveia has co-authored and presented papers, most recently as a contributing author to the SPEE’s 2011 Monograph 3, Guidelines for the Practical Evaluation of Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays”, and SPE 121525, “A Statistical Approach to the Effective Economic Modeling and Portfolio Selection of Unconventional Resource Opportunities”, at EUROPEC. He is a member of APEGGA, SPE, SPEE, and AAPG and a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP.

Gouveia earned a BS degree in chemical engineering from the University of Toronto.