Project Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Analysis
This 1-day course provides an introduction to the application of systematic risk analysis to identify, quantify, and manage the risks and uncertainties involved with modern petroleum field development. Topics include:
• Understanding probability and statistics as the language of uncertainty. This includes different types of distributions and when to use what, the central limit theorem, dependencies, and their impact.
• Decision analysis with a focus on the value of information.
• The application of Bayes’ theorem.
• Geologic, non-geologic, and commercial chance of success plus multi-zone analysis.
• Exercises focused on developing better estimating skills with an emphasis on estimating in ranges, rather than single values.
Why You Should Attend
You’ll learn tools and techniques for identifying which variables have the greatest impact on overall project value.
Who Should Attend
Petroleum engineers, geologists, geophysicists, managers and others involved in the design or implementation of risk analysis systems.
0.8 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 1-day course.
To receive a full refund, all cancellations must be received in writing no later than 14 days prior to the course start date. Cancellations made after the 14-day window will not be refunded. Send cancellation requests by email to email@example.com; by fax to +1.866.460.3032 (US) or +1.972.852.9292 (outside US); or mail to SPE Registration, PO Box 833836, Richardson, TX 75083.
For more details, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
James (Jim) Gouveia, PEng has a diverse technical, business, and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in 2002 after 21 years with Amoco and BP Energy. Gouveia worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in exploration, production and reservoir engineering, strategic and business process planning, portfolio, and risk management. Prior to BP's acquisition of Amoco in 1999, he was director of risk management for North America. In this role he was accountable for assurance of consistent project evaluation of all major capital projects. He was the recipient of the President’s Award for his work in developing Amoco Canada’s first major fractured tight gas play and the Chairman's Award for his work in implementing project, risk, and portfolio management processes within Amoco Canada. Following the merger, he functioned as the risk and assurance coordinator for Canada. In his last roles with BP, Gouveia led and managed their strategic initiative into unconventional gas resources in Western Canada. He was a member of a world-wide task force focused on growth initiatives in mature basins and developing a portfolio management process for BP's North American unconventional gas assets.
Gouveia has co-authored and presented papers, most recently as a contributing author to the SPEE’s 2011 Monograph 3, Guidelines for the Practical Evaluation of Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays”, and SPE 121525, “A Statistical Approach to the Effective Economic Modeling and Portfolio Selection of Unconventional Resource Opportunities”, at EUROPEC. He is a member of APEGGA, SPE, SPEE, and AAPG and a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP.
Gouveia earned a BSc degree in chemical engineering from the University of Toronto.
Mark A. McLane is a partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates. He is an SPE Distinguished Lecturer on the topic of “Reserve Overbooking—An Issue of Professional Ethics.” McLane joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 years with Exxon Company. He has coauthored several technical papers and served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado. He has taught courses for the Gulf Coast Section of SPE, AAPG, and Houston Geological Society.
McLane holds a BS with honors in petroleum engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.
Gary P. Citron is the managing partner in Rose & Associates, a consulting firm that supplies integrated methods of risk analysis to the E&P industry. Citron joined Rose & Associates in 1999 after 20 years as a geoscientist, manager, and internal consultant for Amoco. In 2001, he received the Best Paper Award from AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and again in 2007 he was honored for delivering a Top Ten Oral Presentation at the AAPG annual convention in Long Beach, California.
Citron has authored or coauthored more than a dozen publications and has been an invited speaker for SIPES, Geological Society of London, AAPG, SPE, and SEG. He earned his BS in geology from State University of New York at Buffalo, and his MS and PhD in geology from Cornell University.
Other Courses by Instructors
Gary P. Citron, James Gouveia, and Mark A. McLane