Project Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Analysis
In this 2-day course, you’ll learn to apply risk and uncertainty management principles to decision quality analysis in the development of oil and gas reserves. On the first day, we set the background with statistics and probabilities, estimating under uncertainty and probabilistic reserves estimation principles. The second day features ways to determine the chance of geological and commercial success, and the use of decision trees to assess the value of new information. Topics include:
• Distribution types and when to use what
• The central limits theorem
• Estimating under uncertainty
• Estimating volumetric reserves, saturations and net pay
• The value of perfect Information—seismic example
• The value of imperfect information
Why You Should Attend
This class is an excellent way to gain a lot of ground professionally in a short amount of time. If you’d rather be making the decisions than carrying them out, this course is for you.
Who Should Attend
This course is for anyone who is involved with making quality decisions about the development of subsurface hydrocarbon accumulations.
1.6 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) awarded for this 2-day course.
To receive a full refund, all cancellations must be received in writing no later than 14 days prior to the course start date. Cancellations made after the 14-day window will not be refunded. Send cancellation requests by email to email@example.com; by fax to +1.866.460.3032 (US) or +1.972.852.9292 (outside US); or mail to SPE Registration, PO Box 833836, Richardson, TX 75083.
For more details, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
James (Jim) Gouveia, PEng has a diverse technical, business, and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in 2002 after 21 years with Amoco and BP Energy. Gouveia worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in exploration, production and reservoir engineering, strategic and business process planning, portfolio, and risk management. Prior to BP's acquisition of Amoco in 1999, he was director of risk management for North America. In this role he was accountable for assurance of consistent project evaluation of all major capital projects. He was the recipient of the President’s Award for his work in developing Amoco Canada’s first major fractured tight gas play and the Chairman's Award for his work in implementing project, risk, and portfolio management processes within Amoco Canada. Following the merger, he functioned as the risk and assurance coordinator for Canada. In his last roles with BP, Gouveia led and managed their strategic initiative into unconventional gas resources in Western Canada. He was a member of a world-wide task force focused on growth initiatives in mature basins and developing a portfolio management process for BP's North American unconventional gas assets.
Gouveia has co-authored and presented papers, most recently as a contributing author to the SPEE’s 2011 Monograph 3, Guidelines for the Practical Evaluation of Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays”, and SPE 121525, “A Statistical Approach to the Effective Economic Modeling and Portfolio Selection of Unconventional Resource Opportunities”, at EUROPEC. He is a member of APEGGA, SPE, SPEE, and AAPG and a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP.
Gouveia earned a BSc degree in chemical engineering from the University of Toronto.
Mark A. McLane is a partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates. He is an SPE Distinguished Lecturer on the topic of “Reserve Overbooking—An Issue of Professional Ethics.” McLane joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 years with Exxon Company. He has coauthored several technical papers and served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado. He has taught courses for the Gulf Coast Section of SPE, AAPG, and Houston Geological Society.
McLane holds a BS with honors in petroleum engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.
Gary P. Citron is the managing partner in Rose & Associates, a consulting firm that supplies integrated methods of risk analysis to the E&P industry. Citron joined Rose & Associates in 1999 after 20 years as a geoscientist, manager, and internal consultant for Amoco. In 2001, he received the Best Paper Award from AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and again in 2007 he was honored for delivering a Top Ten Oral Presentation at the AAPG annual convention in Long Beach, California.
Citron has authored or coauthored more than a dozen publications and has been an invited speaker for SIPES, Geological Society of London, AAPG, SPE, and SEG. He earned his BS in geology from State University of New York at Buffalo, and his MS and PhD in geology from Cornell University.
Other Courses by Instructors
Gary P. Citron, James Gouveia, and Mark A. McLane