Risk, Uncertainty and Economic Analysis for Resource Assessment and Production Forecasting in Shale, Tight Clastics, and Coal
This course will be taught by a combination of instructors listed below:
Gary P. Citron, Peter Carragher, Kellam Colquitt, David Cook Jr., James (Jim) Gouveia, James (Jim) A. MacKay, Mark A. McLane, Robert (Bob) M. Otis, Peter R. Rose, Mark Schneider, Robert (Bob) Turner, Raymond (Ray) Young
This 4-day course covers assessment methods required for the technical and economic evaluation of unconventional resources. The premise for this course is that sound estimation of key engineering, geotechnical, and economic parameters is essential for maximizing profitability. Unconventional resource assessment requires a probabilistic approach. Unlike traditional deterministic methods, which call for the ongoing study of key parameters to get ever closer to “the answer,” probabilistic methods recognize that most parameters in unconventional resources are fraught with uncertainty.
The course uses realistic games and exercises to illustrate: (1) the principles and mechanics of good estimating; (2) the analytical procedures used to identify, quantify and manage the uncertainty and risk associated with unconventional resource development and production.
- Introduction to probability and statistics as the language of uncertainty
- Estimating under uncertainty
- Characteristics and assessment of tight gas, CSG/CBM, and shale gas
- Reserve estimation and production forecasting
- Decision trees and the value of information
- Unconventional resource assessment
- Use of accumulation plots to select unconventional plays
- Economic evaluation
Why You Should Attend
The course provides an assessment process for selecting the unconventional resource plays that best meet your company’s goals. You will learn characterization and valuation of the plays, and the importance of assessing reserves at a project and type well level. You will also learn how to make predictions based on limited data sets and which reservoir engineering fundamentals shape assessment of well spacing.
Who Should Attend
Petroleum engineers, geoscientists, commercial team members, business analysts, and managers charged with creating value from unconventional subsurface hydrocarbon accumulations.
3.2 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) will be awarded for this 4-day course.
To receive a full refund, all cancellations must be received in writing no later than 14 days prior to the course start date. Cancellations made after the 14-day window will not be refunded. Send cancellation requests by email to firstname.lastname@example.org; by fax to +1.866.460.3032 (US) or +1.972.852.9292 (outside US); or mail to SPE Registration, PO Box 833836, Richardson, TX 75083.
For more details, please contact us at email@example.com.
Gary P. Citron is the managing partner in Rose & Associates, a consulting firm that supplies integrated methods of risk analysis to the E&P industry. Citron joined Rose & Associates in 1999 after 20 years as a geoscientist, manager, and internal consultant for Amoco. In 2001, he received the Best Paper Award from AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and again in 2007 he was honored for delivering a Top Ten Oral Presentation at the AAPG annual convention in Long Beach, California.
Citron has authored or coauthored more than a dozen publications and has been an invited speaker for SIPES, Geological Society of London, AAPG, SPE, and SEG. He earned his BS in geology from State University of New York at Buffalo, and his MS and PhD in geology from Cornell University.
Peter Carragher has been involved in oil and gas exploration since 1974, when he joined Amoco. He has evaluated and drilled prospects in most of the world’s oil and gas provinces. Since 1990 he has been involved in developing and applying exploration risk assessment techniques and portfolio management processes. From 1989 to 1994, Pete served as manager of Amoco’s Basin Analysis Group for Worldwide New Ventures, lead of Amoco’s Prospect Quality Team from 1994 until 1997, and manager of Upstream Portfolio Analysis for Amoco immediately prior to the merger with BP. In 2003 he became head of discipline for Worldwide Exploration, and was later named vice president of Geoscience and Exploration.
Pete has extensive experience in designing exploration strategy, process, and organization capability that has led to improved business performance. He is also a leader in helping companies liaise more effectively with seismic acquisition vendors at the portfolio level to best leverage a company’s exploration budget.
Carragher earned his BS in geology from King’s College in London.
Kellam Colquitt, senior associate at Rose & Associates, is an exploration and development geologist with extensive domestic and international experience. His 38-year career has included officer and senior management positions at large public and private oil and gas exploration and production companies. In those positions he was responsible for directing and overseeing exploration efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, west Texas, south Louisiana, the mid-continent and New Mexico. Internationally he has worked extensively in many of the South American basins, (particularly those in Argentina), the North Sea, West Africa, and the Po Valley in Italy.
Before joining Rose & Associates in 2009 he served as the chief operating officer for Reef Exploration in Richardson, Texas. Kellam also held positions at Vintage Petroleum, Ranger Oil, Occidental Petroleum, and Santa Fe Minerals. In 1995 he began introducing and championing the Rose & Associates methodology in the companies he served and has utilized their techniques for prospect analysis and resource size estimation for many years on prospects in multiple basins throughout the world.
Kellam earned his BS in geology from Texas A&M University.
David M. Cook, Jr., a partner with Rose & Associates and manager of Lognormal Solutions, is an explorationist who served in a variety of interpretation, supervisory, planning, and exploration consulting positions during a 22-year career with Mobil and ExxonMobil. He performed Mobil Exploration's first statistical audit of pre/post-drill results, assumed management of Mobil's prospect inventory in 1992, formalized performance reviews, captured technical "Lessons Learned" for all wildcats, developed and implemented a globally standardized methodology for pre-drill reserves estimation based on lognormality and reality checking, and organized and led Mobil's "Risk/Volumes Network" to ensure consistent reserves and chance of success estimation. During his last assignment, Cook advised management on decision analysis techniques, consulted on exploration risk analysis and economics, and transformed Mobil's prospect inventory into a knowledge management tool, facilitating integrated strategic planning and broader, accelerated global technical learning. He also assisted in development of Mobil's play/concession portfolio modeling process, provided portfolio rankings based on multi-attribute utility theory, and consulted with Mobil's worldwide teams on process implementation.
Cook earned his BS in geophysics from Texas A&M University.
James (Jim) Gouveia, PEng has a diverse technical, business, and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in 2002 after 21 years with Amoco and BP Energy. Gouveia worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in exploration, production and reservoir engineering, strategic and business process planning, portfolio, and risk management. Prior to BP's acquisition of Amoco in 1999, he was director of risk management for North America. In this role he was accountable for assurance of consistent project evaluation of all major capital projects. He was the recipient of the President’s Award for his work in developing Amoco Canada’s first major fractured tight gas play and the Chairman's Award for his work in implementing project, risk, and portfolio management processes within Amoco Canada. Following the merger, he functioned as the risk and assurance coordinator for Canada. In his last roles with BP, Gouveia led and managed their strategic initiative into unconventional gas resources in Western Canada. He was a member of a world-wide task force focused on growth initiatives in mature basins and developing a portfolio management process for BP's North American unconventional gas assets.
Gouveia has co-authored and presented papers, most recently as a contributing author to the SPEE’s 2011 Monograph 3, Guidelines for the Practical Evaluation of Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays”, and SPE 121525, “A Statistical Approach to the Effective Economic Modeling and Portfolio Selection of Unconventional Resource Opportunities”, at EUROPEC. He is a member of APEGGA, SPE, SPEE, and AAPG and a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP.
Gouveia earned a BSc degree in chemical engineering from the University of Toronto.
James (Jim) A. MacKay, a partner in Rose & Associates, recently completed a distinguished 34-year career with Chevron Texaco as an exploration risk analyst for their Global Risk Team. MacKay has also worked as a geologist, geophysicist, economist, exploration manager, planning manager, and research scientist. In his research role, he was instrumental in developing Texaco's global approach to risk analysis. He regularly taught risk analysis for Texaco and continues to teach for the AAPG. MacKay is a certified petroleum geologist within AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and is a registered geologist in the state of California. He is a co-author of the book Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration and several papers that emphasize the concept of risk aversion as a tool for working interest selection. In 2002, MacKay served as the invited lecturer for the AAPG Distinguished International Lecture tour.
MacKay earned his BS in geology from Brigham Young University.
Mark A. McLane is a partner in the international consulting firm of Rose & Associates. He is an SPE Distinguished Lecturer on the topic of “Reserve Overbooking—An Issue of Professional Ethics.” McLane joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 years with Exxon Company. He has coauthored several technical papers and served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado. He has taught courses for the Gulf Coast Section of SPE, AAPG, and Houston Geological Society.
McLane holds a BS with honors in petroleum engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.
Other Courses by Instructors
Gary P. Citron, James Gouveia, and Mark A. McLane