Is There a Need for a Reserves Confidence Metric?

Fig. 4—Reserves confidence metric for 2P CBM 2P Queensland production leases with 5 or more years of production.

An article published in the April 2014 JPT (McMillan 2014) discussed an SPE workshop survey regarding confidence in the SPE Petroleum Resources Management System [SPE-PRMS (2007)]. This survey identified issues regarding the believability of publicly disclosed reserves and resources. The survey also concluded that the interpretation of the SPE-PRMS in relation to unconventional resources is not consistent among reserve estimators. Critical to the integrity of our industry is confidence in publicly disclosed reserves. These reserves often come with limited supporting data and, therefore, tools need to be developed to enable the users, who may have limited technical knowledge, to identify estimates that should be used with caution or require additional supporting information.

McMillan (2017) proposed a modified version of the reserves-production ratio, called the Reserve Confidence Metric (RCM), to gauge confidence. Poor confidence does not mean the reserve estimates are wrong; it means that the estimates are to be used with caution or further information is required.

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Is There a Need for a Reserves Confidence Metric?

Don McMillan, SPE, Fellow Engineers Australia

01 March 2018

Volume: 70 | Issue: 3

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