We are at the cusp of Industrial Revolution 4.0, with the cyber-physical system establishing a synergy between computation and physical components. In lockstep with the technologies, as we move toward Well Construction 4.0 coupled with 360° well-engineering optimization for the ultimate delivery of partial to full automation, an important but complex component to be considered is tubulars in the well.
Tubulars are associated with the drilling system, which is complex and dynamic, with a ratio of length to diameter greater than 100,000. For comparison, for a human hair to have the same length-to-diameter ratio, it would have to be 60 ft long. So, reliability is important in such a highly oscillatory, uncertain, high-dimensionality framework. Tubular modeling should bridge deterministic models and data-informed models. This calls for data-informed, engineering-guided, reinforced reliability- or risk-supported models to describe the non-Gaussian drilling system more realistically.
Risk-based design is very important, especially for these complex systems, because a deterministic approach may not provide a strong underpinning to the reliability estimation of the downhole tools. We have to reduce the probability of failure. One of the areas that needs to be considered is a risk-based design for tubulars that formally identifies the elements and areas of risks by using probability of failure to capture uncertainties rather than incorporating safety factors in the deterministic calculations. Risk should be considered during the design phase, which will allow more freedom to make adjustments, and during the drilling phase. Doing so will also help improve the 360° well-engineering optimization and the additional computational components needed for the future cyber-physical system.
I have selected papers that are structured toward this approach with example problems and solutions.
This Month's Technical Papers
Recommended Additional Reading
SPE 188321 Intelligent Drilling System: Expanding the Envelope of Wired Drillpipe by O. Sehsah, Saudi Aramco, et al.
Robello Samuel, SPE, Technology Fellow, Halliburton
18 May 2018
Reliability-Based Casing Design Unlocks Reserves in a High-Pressure Gas Field
This paper presents work performed to characterize the probability of collapse as a function of reservoir-abandonment pressure using reliability-based design (RBD).
Risk-Based Statistical Approach To Predict Casing Leaks
A probabilistic approach was introduced to improve interpretation of data from electromagnetic corrosion logs. This paper presents a statistical risk-based approach to predicting casing leaks using electromagnetic corrosion logs.
Study of Expandable-Tubular Collapse Leads To Risk-Based Strength Development
The objective of this study is to investigate comprehensively the effects of the expansion process on the pipe mechanical properties and collapse performance and to develop a reliable risk-based collapse-strength design for the expandables.
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12 June 2018