A few months ago while at lunch with a project team, I heard an engineer lament about how much more difficult it is to execute a project now than in years past. Innocuous as that comment seemed, it resonated with everyone at the table, and my discussions with others on this topic have made one thing clear to me: We have a complexity problem in the industry.
With that in mind, I built a team to look at the drivers of complex systems such as the relationship between cost escalation and complexity, though other factors like schedule slippage are perhaps just as significant. We plan to start a discussion that will light the path for future data collection and analysis.
The team assembled comprises Gordon Sterling, project manager at Shell (retired), Charles Jennings, partner at Leading Edge Collaboration, Ray Rui, researcher at Independent Project Analysis, Paul Paterson, technology manager at an operator, Mike Richbourg, facilities engineer at GATE, James Deaver, engineering adviser at OFD Engineering, Janet S. Elias, engineer and cognitive scientist at GATE, and Simon Richards, consultant.
The questionnaire at the end of this article will form the basis of our interviews with selected industry veterans. We also would like to receive completed forms from the Oil and Gas Facilities readers.
There are many contributors to system complexity, such as entropy generation, information content, the number of nodes, and computational ability.
When studying systems, it is important to look at the ways that individual nodes affect each other. Emergent properties, or properties that emerge from a combination of simpler constituent parts, are key elements: A system is not the sum of its parts.
For example, consider an ant colony. An ant is a simple creature. Alone it will wander aimlessly and die. But put 100,000 of them together and they create a superorganism with skills in finding food, buildings nests, and fighting enemies. The properties of the colony are not properties of the individual ants.
Common properties of complex systems include:
Two types of complex systems are discussed in the literature as distinguished by the properties of the nodes. Complex physical systems (CPSs) have mechanical nodes, each of which follows simple fixed rules (e.g., an ant colony). Complex adaptive systems (CASs) have intelligent agents as nodes (e.g., a project team).
A system composed of humans (CAS) has the opposite behavior of a system of ants (CPS). Doubling the number of ants in a colony will probably get twice as much work done. Doubling the number of humans on a design team will not result in doubling the work done—it may result in less work completed. As human organizations get larger, they become increasingly less efficient because of coordination losses and motivation losses.
A project can be viewed as comprising multiple interrelated systems such as:
Except for the physical plant itself, all systems are CAS, which are much more difficult to study. In a CPS, the behavior of each node is predictable. Each type of ant behaves like others of its type at all times. In a project team, each node is an intelligent, emotional individual with a set of objectives that may not be fully known. An individual’s behavior will be influenced by many factors and will often be surprising.
Additionally, the connections between systems are important. A complete study of project complexity would include separate studies of the individual complex systems along with a study of the interconnections between the systems. Each system is a network composed of connected nodes. Some nodes are more connected than others, and some connections are stronger than others.
Within a project organization, there are clusters, often called a small-world network. Most individuals belong to a small world where connectivity is pretty good. Connectivity between worlds is not nearly as robust.
Considering the behavior of an individual requires attention to a hierarchy of effects. Individuals are members of a subteam (their small world). Multiple subteams make up the project delivery organization, and the project delivery organization exists within an overall culture labeled “‘public”’ in Fig. 1.
The proposed study will include literature reviews, interviews with practicing engineers, and data collection from projects.
The literature reviews will encompass published work in social cognition, action science, complexity theory, communication theory (pragmatics), decision theory, sensemaking, and best practices for project management and control.
An early goal is to study the increases in complexity of the project design and the project organization that executes the plan.
Fig. 2 shows the interplay of factors hypothesized to affect the complexity of the project design and the design organization.
FOR FURTHER READING
Mitchell, M. 2009. Complexity: A Guided Tour. Oxford University Press.
Miller, J.H. and Page, S.E. 2007. Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life. Princeton University Press.
Reid, D., Dekker, M., Paardekam, A.H.M. et al. 2014. Deepwater Development Non-Technical Risks—Identification and Management. Paper presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 27 October. SPE-170739-MS. http://dx/doi.org/10.2118/
Please consider projects spaced over a period of time of at least a few years, preferably from 10 to 20 years. If you worked on two similar projects that can be compared, that would be preferable. If not, then try to imagine how the project you are working on now would have been different had it been done from 10 to 20 years ago. Consider a project you did from 10 to 20 years ago and imagine how it might be different if executed today
Answer only the question(s) that resonate with you and omit the ones that are less important. It is not necessary to provide a comprehensive answer.
Please send completed surveys to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Howard Duhon is the systems engineering manager at GATE and the SPE technical director of Projects, Facilities, and Construction. He is a member of the Editorial Board of Oil and Gas Facilities.
He can be reached at email@example.com