This paper introduces dynamic risk modeling and reports on a 2016 proof-of-concept demonstration of the emergent capability. While dynamic risk modeling can apply in any high-risk environment, the demonstration focuses on the high-pressure/high-temperature drilling environment and uses 2010 Macondo cumulative risk as a demonstration scenario.
Dynamic risk modeling integrates the effect of human decisions with technical conditions. It enables three evolutionary capabilities in risk management:
The paper demonstrates enhancement of the digital oil field by applying real-time data to predictive decision making. The model receives continuous well data, processes it through the model with other environmental and human factors, and translates it into real-time risk awareness and insight.
The demonstration of dynamic risk modeling is applied to the Deepwater Horizon drilling environment in April 2010 to show how a real-time representation of current and cumulative risk could have aided decision makers with critical information and insight.