Mastering Uncertainty and Risk in Unconventional Reservoir Assessment (Shale, Coals, Tight Sandstones & Carbonates)

CompletionsDrillingProdution and OperationsReservoir

Course Description

This one-day course provides a robust framework for assessing uncertainty and risk in unconventional projects. It begins by summarizing the key discipline-specific workflows and work products needed to characterize your project. It then introduces 1) statistics as a basis for applying probabilistic techniques, 2) approaches for estimating key parameters under uncertainty, and 3) techniques to mitigate bias in your work. The course then turns to using aggregation and its derivative products (trumpet plots, confidence curves, and sequential aggregation plots) to quantify the optimal number of appraisal wells and track your drilling progress. The course concludes by applying what’s been learned within a staged approach in order to expose capital incrementally and make good decisions along the way about whether to continue funding the project. Geoscientists, engineers, commercial team members, business analysts, and managers will all benefit from this course.

Learning Level


Course Length

1 Day

Why Attend

This course provides a probabilistic framework for assessing uncertainty and risk in unconventional oil and gas projects. Participants will learn:

  • Products and workflows are needed to characterise their unconventional project
  • The usage of statistics as a language for communicating uncertainty
  • How aggregation reduces uncertainty and risk
  • How a rigorous stage gate process incrementally exposes capital and helps you make better investment decisions

Who Attends

This course is intended for geoscientists, engineers, commercial team members, business analysts, and managers charged with creating value from their unconventional projects.

Special Requirements



0.8 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) are awarded for this 1-day course.


Creties D. Jenkins (P.E., P.G.) has over 30 years of industry experience, having worked for Tenneco, ARCO, and DeGolyer & MacNaughton before joining Rose and Associates in 2013. He specializes in the characterization of unconventional reservoirs, including tight sandstones and carbonates, shales, and coals. Creties has conducted integrated studies, peer reviews, resource assessment work and training for more than 50 companies around the world. He has also conducted more than 100 industry courses and workshops over the past decade focused on the exploration, appraisal, and development of tight oil and gas reservoirs. Creties has served as a technical editor, distinguished lecturer, and distinguished author for SPE and is a recent recipient of AAPG’s Distinguished Service Award. He is a co-author of SPEE Monograph 4: Estimating Ultimate Recovery of Developed Wells in Low-Permeability Reservoirs (2016) and led the 2017 Multi-disciplinary Summit: Building and Applying the Universal Workflow for Low Permeability Oil and Gas Reservoirs. Creties received a BSc in Geological Engineering and a MSc in Geology from the South Dakota School of Mines. He is a partner in Rose & Associates, LLP.