Tuesday, February 05
This seminar covers the fundamental assessment methods required for the economic modelling of project risk and uncertainty. The course is for professionals that are charged with creating value.
- Introduction to Probability and Statistics as the Language of Uncertainty
- Estimating Under Uncertainty
- Chance of Success and Identifying Key Project Risks
- Modelling Cluster Developments
Wednesday, February 06
Global oil and gas markets are faced with increased volatility, uncertainty in regards to supply and demand, and ongoing geopolitical developments. After decades of stability and tranquillity, Middle Eastern National Oil Companies (NOCs) seem to be heading for pivotal changes as they diversify. NOCs privatisation or IPOs, the re-emergence of OPEC, geopolitical events, and renewable energy are the main themes currently talked about in the region.
Key topics for the session discussion will include:
- Threats to energy security in the Middle East
- Energy fuels outlook in the region
- GCC NOC privatisation and IPO (benefits and drawbacks)
- How the IOCs in the Middle East view the investment environment today
- New economic frontiers with low oil prices
- The future role of NOCs and IOCs
The INOC of the Future
Challenges and threats forcing change into management of NOCs, and a new International National Oil Company to be set up as geopolitics, economics and diversification are taking their toll
- Cyril Widdershoven, Founder and Sr. Advisor Geopolitics & Country Risk - VEROCY
- Andres Marvik, Manager Competitive Intelligence Department, Executive Office - ADNOC
Sustainability of resources lies in the focus of each nation’s interest to have an advanced position in the future. Sustainability within the energy sector is more and more important as it is considered one of the pillars if not the most important to achieve various governments’ ambitious plans. Sustainability in energy is mainly concerned about designing a resilient energy mix that focused, in the last two decades, on conventional renewable resources such as hydro power, wind energy and solar energy and recently on non-conventional energy sources such as wave energy, tidal energy, hydrogen power and nuclear waste energy. Strategic moves towards a more efficient energy mix get a boost following the fall of oil prices in the last five years. Because of recent efforts, wind and solar share in the power mix continued to progress in all regions as their share in the global power mix grew. However, a lot of work needs to be done in this field as approximately 80% of the global energy mix is still from fossil fuels. Oil and gas industry players have a key role in shaping this energy mix to achieve sustainability targets.
- Raed Bkayrat, CEO, Clean Energy Business Council
- Nurul Nashwar bt Mohd Taib, Manager (Value Optimisation), PETRONAS
- Hisham Akhonbay, Research Fellow, KAPSARC
- Sami Kamel, Global Market Development Operations, GE Power
The focus of fiscal terms and economic analysis has classically been quite ‘short-term’. Heavy discount rates, long project lives and political fiscal urgency have led to fiscal systems that neglect full-cycle development and late life concerns. Any future investments in new and risky technology and for addressing emerging environmental concerns such as decommissioning would impact the present-day project economics. In this session we will look at how economic analysis and fiscal terms can and should take a full-life view with considerations for sustainable planning. We will examine how governments are tackling decommissioning through policy, provisions, taxation and legal obligations. In addition we will provide the investor perspective on the different aspects of fiscal regimes that makes an investment attractive or not.
- License Expiry and Decommission Strategies
Muhammad Iqbal bin Mohd Yunus, Petroleum Economics Department, Centre of Excellence (COE) - PETRONAS
- Global Fiscal Approaches to Decommissioning and Late-life Investments
Henry Hawkins, Director - Aucerna (Palantir Solutions)
Going digital in the modern oilfield is not a trend, it is a must and has been with us since the first logging tools. We continue to look for ways to make better and more informed decisions based on data.
Today we speak of “digital transformation”. It is not new and to stay ahead of the curve we need to have a digital strategy to keep ahead of the curve and make pertinent decisions on data that is presented. The data we receive is becoming more expansive.
To make decisions on this data we need confidence that the data is reliable. Reliability in data means that we must trust and track the data sources. Block chain is a potential technology that can be used to garner that trust.
Data is becoming more vast, new technologies exist to make informed decisions about that data. Data analytics can be utilised to enable better decision making. It can be applied in production forecasting, planning, optimisation, drilling and planning. Learning more about data analytics is an imperative in the 21st century.
Our overriding theme will be understanding the challenges around digital transformation, technology and innovation including special topics of interest such as cyber-security, data access, data integrity and data quality. In addition, we aim to understand the plethora of data that is being presented, and having the assurance in the reliability that the data being presented is verified.
- How Intelligent Asset Strategies Support Availability Improvement, Cost Reduction and Risk Mitigation
Yerem Davtyan, Lead APM Solution Architect (MENAT) - Baker Hughes, a GE company
- Why Sould Organisations consider the Blockchain?
Fatima AlKatheeri, Partnership Advisor - ADNOC
- Digitization Impact on Reservoir Engineering Decision Making
Mohannad Alharbi, Petroleum Engineer System Analyst - Saudi Aramco
- Digital Solutions: Unified Techno-Commercial Platform for Integrated E&P Planning
Azlan Kassim, Global Consulting Manager – Planning & Economics - Schlumberger
Thursday, February 07
Can the Main Drivers of the US Shale Revolution be Easily Exported in Other Countries?
Senior Technical Advisor
The practical application of economics and evaluation techniques is critical to the success of the company, or country. Whether it be project selection, creating competitive advantage, or project risk management and operational efficiency, the inclusion of economics and evaluation techniques to manage uncertainty, create value paths, and generally support decision-making at all stages of a project is invaluable.
In the oil and gas sector, organisations face making complex decisions in complicated circumstances all the time, and assessing risk associated with those decisions are vital. Currently, challenging factors are arising for oil and gas companies especially in the Middle East, such as to lower carbon emissions and use cleantech innovations.
This session will focus on:
- Provide methods, theoretical and practical for decision making
- Risk analysis associated with decision making, highlighting common traps and pitfalls
- Elements of the decision-making process and the risk analysis associated with each element
- Showcase examples throughout the project lifespan
- Strategic decision-making
- Handling Uncertainty in Valuation – Setting the Right Perspectives
Ibrahim Mohamed and Nur Shazwani Zainuddin, Petroleum Economist - PETRONAS
- Quality-assured Multiple-criteria Decision Analytics in a Corporate Exploration Portfolio Management Context
Dmitry Surovtsev, Senior Consultant -Exploration Decision Support Systems - Schlumberger
How can upstream energy companies effectively manage a portfolio of oil and gas fields to ensure production and cash flow are optimised and resilient to all economic conditions? The oil industry has emerged from one of the most severe downturns recently, testing the ability of all oil and gas organisations to navigate a low oil price environment.
With constraints on capital playing an increasingly important role, key metrics such as reserve replacement and production growth were relegated below cash flow and profitability when determining business plans post 2014, all whilst attempting to continue to effectively implement reservoir management strategies to protect long-term asset value.
The oil industry re-adjusted for ‘lower-for-longer’ prices and management teams demanded ‘more for less’ from both assets and staff. However, with a subsequent rise in oil prices after an agreement from OPEC in late 2016 to reign in production, then another fall in late 2018, E&P companies will need to balance ongoing capital budget prudence to reflect ongoing turbulence in the market in order to prudently re-stock portfolios after a period of under investment into the industry globally.
- Quantifying ‘Resilient’ E&P Portfolio Strategies
Paul Allan, VP Technology - Aucerna
- Achieving Corporate Strategy through Smart Portfolio Management
Fathesha Sheikh, Senior Specialist, Strategic Planning & Portfolio Management, Upstream Planning Unit - ADNOC
- Mubadala Petroleum: Reshaping the Portfolio
Inderpal Singh, Head of Mergers and Acquisitions, member of the Senior Leadership Council - Mubadala Petroleum
The prevalence of unconventional resource exploitation continues to spread globally. Activities are directed toward the exploitation of unconventional resource reservoirs or the application of unconventional exploitation techniques to conventional reservoirs. In either instance, the context and focus of economics and evaluation must adapt to the realities and priorities of unconventional projects. The valuation as well as the practical project decision support role of economics must strive to include the unique context, input, and success criteria of ever-changing unconventional project methods. Specific topics in this session may include project valuation techniques, decision support for exploration, completion method and efficiency, as well as project and infrastructure planning.
- Tight Unconventional Reservoirs Require Unconventional Assessment: Realistic Approach!
Hadi Belhaj, Associate Professor & SPE Faculty Advisor - Petroleum Engineering Department - Khalifa University
- Strategy towards Unlocking and Accelerated Development of Low Permeability Microporous Rocks
Kamlesh Kumar, Senior Reservoir Engineer, PDO
Faaeza AlKatheeri , Geoscience Manager, Al Dhafra Petroleum Company