Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Evaluations


Management and Information

Course Description

This seminar covers the fundamental assessment methods required for the economic modelling of project risk and uncertainty. The course is for professionals that are charged with creating value.

Topics:
  • Introduction to Probability and Statistics as the Language of Uncertainty
    • Distribution types and when to use what
    • Dependencies and their impact
  • Estimating Under Uncertainty
    • What is an 80% confidence interval?
    • Determining a P10 and P90 via reality checks
    • Deterministic P50 versus estimating P50’s using probabilistic ranges
  • Chance of Success and Identifying Key Project Risks 
    • Determining Pg (chance of geological success)
    • Determining Pc (chance of commercial success)
    • Boston Square approach to identify and prioritise project risks
  • Modelling Cluster Developments
    • In regions where no one subsurface accumulation can lead to a commercial development, the emerging prize is the ability to “cluster” small pools using advanced sub-sea tie-back technology to create a robust economically viable project. This section will cover the principles required to capture and properly economically model these opportunities.  

Learning Level

Introductory

Course Length

1 Day

Why Attend

Learn how risks and uncertainties, as well as assumptions, both stated and hidden, impact economic evaluations and the quality of decisions made based on them. Many examples and exercises are included to show how assumptions made on distribution type, correlations, commercial thresholds, and development scenarios impact the economic evaluation.

Who Attends

Anyone involved in providing data, running cash flow models, or using results of economic evaluations to make better business decisions.

CEUs

Engineers are responsible for enhancing their professional competence throughout their careers. Licensed, chartered, and/or certified engineers are sometimes required by government entities to provide proof of continued professional development and training. Training credits are defined as Continuing Education Units (CEUs) or Professional Development Hours (PDHs).

Attendees of SPE training courses earn 0.8 CEUs for each day of training. We provide each attendee a certificate upon completion of the training course.

Cancellation Policy

All cancellations must be received no later than 14 days prior to the course start date. Cancellations made after the 14-day window will not be refunded.  Refunds will not be given due to no show situations.

Training sessions attached to SPE conferences and workshops follow the cancellation policies stated on the event information page.  Please check that page for specific cancellation information.

SPE reserves the right to cancel or re-schedule courses at will.  Notification of changes will be made as quickly as possible; please keep this in mind when arranging travel, as SPE is not responsible for any fees charged for cancelling or changing travel arrangements.

We reserve the right to substitute course instructors as necessary.

Full regional cancellation policies can be found at the Cancellation Policy page within the SPE Training Course Catalog.

Instructor

Mark Schneider (BS Chemical Engineering, BS Natural Gas Engineering, MS Petroleum Engineering) is a registered professional engineer with a diverse technical and business background. During his almost 30 years in the industry, he has lived and worked in North America, Europe, and Asia. In September 2010, he joined Rose and Associates LLP (R&A) as a Senior Associate.