Upstream Petroleum Economics: Forecasting, Fiscal Regimes, Profitability and Risk Analysis

Management and Information Production and Operations


Petroleum economic fundamentals, which underlie optimal E&P investment decision, strategy, and profitability of E&P projects under risk and uncertainty are discussed; oil and gas fiscal regimes underlying petroleum exploration and production operations worldwide are analysed. In addition, the course presents how the economic value of oil and gas ventures and business can be determined and used in making rational economic decisions. The mechanics of estimating the effects of fiscal instruments on total government takes, E&P economics, and take statistics are simulated in-class by participants using stochastic modeling tools to manage risk and uncertainty in upstream oil and gas business decisions.

Course agenda (pfd)

Learning Level


Course Length

3 Days

Why Attend?

  • Gaining a thorough understanding of oil and gas economic evaluations and business decisions.
  • Identifying the main components and constructing cash flow projections for your upstream projects
  • Determining key elements and determinants involved in making oil and gas investment decisions with due consideration to fiscal arrangements
  • Understanding and applying economic indicators to assess oil and gas industry projects under various fiscal regimes
  • Quantifying and managing uncertainty and risk faced in upstream business decisions
  • Applying Monte Carlo Simulation and other statistical methods in risk analysis to exploration and production investments effectively using spreadsheet modeling tools
  • Understanding, evaluating and modeling both fiscal and production sharing contract terms worldwide

Who Should Attend

The course is designed for upstream E&P professionals with a need for detailed understanding of the upstream petroleum economics:

  • Geoscientists
  • Reservoir Engineers
  • Production Engineers
  • Petroleum Engineers
  • Planning and Development Analysts/Executives
  • Commercial Analysts/Executive/Managers
  • Business Planners/Analysts/Executives/Managers
  • Production Sharing Executives/Managers
  • Project Executives/Manager
  • Petroleum Economists
  • General Managers
  • Finance and Account Executive/Manager

Special Requirements

Delegates are required to bring a laptop computer with Microsoft Excel. Personal computer is recommended to permit software installations for in-class syndicate exercises.


Engineers are responsible for enhancing their professional competence throughout their careers. Licensed, chartered, and/or certified engineers are sometimes required by government entities to provide proof of continued professional development and training. Training credits are defined as Continuing Education Units (CEUs) or Professional Development Hours (PDHs).

Attendees of SPE training courses earn 0.8 CEUs for each day of training. We provide each attendee a certificate upon completion of the training course.


Wumi Iledare is a professor and has over 20 years of professional experience in petroleum economics. He is Chirota and Emmanuel Egbogah Distinguished Professor and Director of Emerald Energy Institute, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria. He is also an Emeritus Professor of Petroleum Economics and Policy Research at the Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, USA. Iledare, an expert in international petroleum fiscal economics and geopolitics of oil and gas resources and supply is a USAEE Senior Fellow and the 2014 Chairman of the governing council and the President of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). He holds a BS. degree in petroleum engineering with honors from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria, an MS in energy resources from University of Pittsburgh School of Engineering, and a PhD in mineral economics from West Virginia University. He is an Associate Editor of the SPE Economics and Management Journal and a former editor of the USAEE Dialogue, a publication of the United States Association for Energy Economics. He served previously as Director of the U.S. Petroleum Technology Transfer Council (PTTC) for the U.S. Gulf Coast Central Region and the 2008 President of United States Association for Energy Economics (USAEE).  Iledare was a petroleum/reservoir engineer for Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) in Nigeria, and a reservoir/production engineer trainee with Mobil Producing Nigeria (MPN). He worked briefly as an energy specialist with the California Energy Commission. Iledare publishes on upstream oil and gas economics and policy severally. Recent seminal research contributions include an empirical analysis of worldwide deepwater prospects with emphasis on the U.S. Gulf of Mexico OCS region and the state of the global oil industry with respect to whether the world is running in to oil or out of it.