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Oil Recovery Increased by Use of Event Detection and Association

Fig. 1—Frequent operation of a production-well choke (red trace).

An operator has launched a successful, limited-scope deployment of a nonparametric capability known as event detection and association (EDA). Variations from the original analytical approach may be necessary before the EDA techniques can be used to solve problems in the field. EDA comprises part of a suite of tools collectively referred to as top-down waterflood (TDWF) diagnostic and optimization. By studying the time-based correlation of these input and output events, the basic TDWF capacitance/resistivity model is either confirmed or improved.

Introduction

It is almost an automatic response for the human mind, presented with time-series data such as controller strip charts, to seek features in those data, mentally label them as “events,” and seek correlations in time against other timelines. However, the human mind is not only highly capable, it is all too often fallible. It will favor connections with short time lags and events of the same shape, size, and duration, paying little attention to the influence on shape of variable scaling. It will also tend to associate variables for which it has a preconceived notion that relationships exist while failing to assess the statistical validity of the labeling process. The mind’s eye can be persuaded easily by superposition and purposeful or even spurious alignment of individual tags’ time traces. Such visual tricks help to find supporting evidence for a pattern. The real challenge is development of an automated, comprehensive, dispassionate, independent, statistically valid process. If all these objectives can be met, then many types of oilfield evaluations can be carried out using an event-based analysis.

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 167836, “From Market-Basket Analysis to Wellhead Monitoring: Use of Events To Increase Oil Recovery,” by R. Bailey, Z. Lu, S. Shirzadi, and E. Ziegel, BP, prepared for the 2014 SPE Intelligent Energy Conference and Exhibition, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 1–3 April. The paper has not been peer reviewed.
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Oil Recovery Increased by Use of Event Detection and Association

01 October 2014

Volume: 66 | Issue: 10

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