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Reducing Uncertainty to Ensure Future Asset Performance

Over the past 5 to 10 years, there has been an increasing focus in the offshore oil and gas industry on predicting and quantifying an asset’s expected production performance. This “performance risk” has always been considered one of the key risk factors for an offshore development, in addition to subsurface, economic, safety, and environmental risks. However, with the shift of offshore developments to harsher environments and deeper water, the traditional method of estimating expected availability and production performance figures, using extrapolated data from previous experience, is increasingly considered insufficient.

With increased investment required for some of the ambitious new offshore developments (floating liquefied natural gas [FLNG], Arctic, and ultradeep developments), there is growing pressure to address any risk to the bottom line and understand how the impact of changing environments and operating conditions will affect economic return and expected revenue. As a result, most operators are now adopting more robust methodologies, such as using simulation technology tools, to evaluate and predict expected performance.

Several key areas in the offshore industry illustrate where these “new” production risk factors are especially relevant.

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Reducing Uncertainty to Ensure Future Asset Performance

Frank Ketelaars, Head of UK Advisory Services, DNV

01 January 2014

Volume: 66 | Issue: 1

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