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Assessing Production Forecast Accuracy: A West Africa Field Case History

The subject field is in the deep water off West Africa. Over its 7-year life, the field reached a peak production of 90,000 BOPD and produced nearly 100 million bbl of oil from a high-quality stacked Lower Miocene deepwater channel complex. This field provides an opportunity to perform a review of how well the reservoir-performance predictions made at project funding matched with the final actual field performance.

Introduction

The production forecast developed at project funding did a very accurate job of predicting average reservoir behavior such as most likely ultimate recovery and production plateau. However, a more detailed comparison of the preproduction depletion plan and the actual field performance shows significant differences. In particular, both gas and water breakthrough and buildup were faster than expected. These factors were offset by higher well productivity and larger in-place oil volumes. 4D seismic acquired after 3 years of production was particularly effective in illuminating gas and water flow pathways in the reservoir that had not been modeled or predicted. In addition, changes were made to the original depletion plan to increase recovery and in reaction to operational issues. The factors that drove the evolution in the depletion plan are reviewed and an assessment is made on the accuracy of the original production forecast.

This article, written by Special Publications Editor Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper SPE 166317, “Assessing the Accuracy of a Production Forecast: West Africa Field Case History,” by Anna Apanel, SPE, Robert Tester, SPE, and Brodie Thomson, ExxonMobil Production Company; and Ginga Mateus, SPE, and Gaspar Marques, SPE, Esso Exploration Angola, prepared for the 2013 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, New Orleans, 30 September–2 October. The paper has not been peer reviewed.
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Assessing Production Forecast Accuracy: A West Africa Field Case History

01 April 2014

Volume: 66 | Issue: 4

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