Project Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Analysis - An Introduction
Disciplines: Management | Projects, Facilities, and Construction
This course provides an introduction to the application of systematic risk analysis to identify, quantify, and manage the risks and uncertainties involved with modern petroleum field development.
- Understanding probability and statistics as the language of uncertainty. This includes different types of distributions and when to use what, the central limit theorem, dependencies, and their impact
- Decision analysis with a focus on the value of information
- The application of Bayes’ theorem.
- Geologic, non-geologic, and commercial chance of success plus multi-zone analysis
- Exercises focused on developing better estimating skills with an emphasis on estimating in ranges, rather than single values
1 or 2 days
You’ll learn tools and techniques for identifying which variables have the greatest impact on overall project value.
Petroleum engineers, geologists, geophysicists, managers and others involved in the design or implementation of risk analysis systems.
0.8 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) are awarded for this 1-day course.
All cancellations must be received no later than 14 days prior to the course start date. Cancellations made after the 14-day window will not be refunded. Refunds will not be given due to no show situations.
Training sessions attached to SPE conferences and workshops follow the cancellation policies stated on the event information page. Please check that page for specific cancellation information.
SPE reserves the right to cancel or re-schedule courses at will. Notification of changes will be made as quickly as possible; please keep this in mind when arranging travel, as SPE is not responsible for any fees charged for cancelling or changing travel arrangements.
We reserve the right to substitute course instructors as necessary.
James (Jim) Gouveia, BaSc, Chemical Engineering, University of Toronto
Mr. Gouveia is a registered Professional Engineer with a diverse technical, business and operations background in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in March, 2002 after 21 years with Amoco and BP Energy. Mr. Gouveia has worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in exploration, production and reservoir engineering, strategic planning, and risk management. Prior to BP's acquisition of Amoco in 1999, Mr. Gouveia was a Director of Risk Management for the Amoco Energy Group of North America. In this role he was accountable for assurance of consistent project evaluation of major capital projects. In his last roles Mr. Gouveia led BP's strategic initiative into unconventional gas resources in Western Canada. With BP, he was a member of several task forces including a world-wide task force focused on growth initiatives in mature basins and developing a portfolio management process for BP's North American unconventional gas assets. Mr. Gouveia is a key author in the development of Rose & Associates course on the assessment of Unconventional resource plays. He has consulted with firms in North America, South America, the Middle East, S.E. Asia and Australia on the resource, reserve and economic evaluation of their Unconventional assets. Mr. Gouveia has co-authored and presented papers, most recently as a contributing author to the SPEE’s 2011 Monograph 3, “Guidelines for the practical evaluation of undeveloped reserves in Resource plays”, and SPE 185077, 175527, 175888 & 121525. Mr. Gouveia is a member of APEGA, SPE, SPEE and AAPG. Mr. Gouveia is a partner in Rose & Associates.
Mark A. McLane is a Partner with Rose and Associates. He has a diverse technical, operations and business background spanning more than 35 years in the petroleum industry. He joined Rose & Associates in January 2000 after three years with Pioneer Natural Resources and 17 years with Exxon Company, USA. He has coauthored several technical papers and served on the Professional Ethics/Registration Panel at the 2003 SPE ATCE in Denver, Colorado. He is an SPE Distinguished Lecturer on the topic of "Reserve Overbooking—An Issue of Professional Ethics" and has taught courses for the SPE, AAPG, EAGE and Houston Geological Society. He has also served as a Guest Lecturer for graduate petroleum engineering programs at Texas A&M University and The University of Houston. Mark holds a BS with honors in petroleum engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.